Why getting out of the current economic downturn isn't as easy as saying "spend"

The recent economic problems, their source and interrelation seem to be so obviously connected, yet so far I haven't seen any pundits make the connections.

Fact: over the last few years, house prices have risen, and people have been capitalizing on the increase in value with second mortgages, or refinancing entirely and pulling out some cash. That money was used to purchase all kinds of goods, including cars, vacations, horse-back riding lessons, and, of course, 50" Plasma TVs.

People were also expanding their other lines of credit: VISA, MasterCard, and store lines.

Now that the house price bubble has burst, and the ARM loans have adjusted, people have no more source of ready capital to borrow, and must live within their means. Some people, saddled with debt they cannot re-finance, must live below their means as they attempt to service that debt.

The past economic boom was all financed with debt. And that game is over. Telling people to "spend" is not going to solve the problem, they have no money to spend, and they can't even dip into their "debt reserve" to refill their wallets, because nobody is willing to loan them one more dime. Their cards are maxed out, and as they pay them down, the credit companies are going to lower the limits on those cards to reward them.

Winter babies are dumber because... well we don't really know

USA today features a story regarding why babies born in winter show less education, and earnings and generally are losers. http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2008-12-22-winter-babies_N.htm

A large body of research suggests that, on average, winter babies grow up to be less educated, less intelligent, less healthy and lower paid than people born in the spring, summer or fall. Scientists have blamed the winter babies' woes on everything from the weather to age cutoffs for school.

And now, a pair of University of Notre Dame economists have come up with an explanation they say could account for half of the discrepancy observed between winter babies and babies born during the rest of the year: Mom.

Then they go on to try to guess why... and guess and guess. Prom babies. Sperm counts. Poor peple don't have air conditioning, that's what it is!

Studies like this give me fits. I guess social researchers have to do something to earn their pay, but I just call bullshit on this. Get your story straight before coming out in public, OK?

Oh, in case you were wondering. I'm a winter baby. And a number of other people I know are winter babies too, and only one of them is really somewhat questionable. The rest are smart, upscale and "normal" people.

Leaning tower of snow

We had lots of snow here recently. And then it snowed again. And then it snowed some more. I made a big pile on the deck and then started adding to it until it was a big snow column. Very boring.
It started leaning over due to some weak snow layers, and I got the idea of making the "Leaning tower of Pisa" in snow. It should be taller or thinner but it's got the lean down pretty well. I don't expect it to last much longer, the lean rate is accelerating.

Click on the picture for a better view.

Snow day in Bellevue Dec 18 2008

Woke up to some snow today. This was about 11:00 AM and it was still coming down. They had tried to forecast snow for the past couple of days and had a really hard time predicting how much, where and when. We finally got ours.

GE quality appliances -- NOT

We really are not all that hard on our appliances, but somehow our GE Profile refrigerator of just 30 months has acquired a number of broken and dented parts.



Dented top on the freezer door. We went away on vacation and came back to the dent. There were house sitters and pet feeders. Nobody knows how it happened, but it's impossible to repair.


The pull out wire tray in the freezer cracked.


Clear plastic panel in the door cracked. Repaired with clear packing tape. Very classy.


The most annoying of all, the front of the guide for the left side vegetable crisper drawer broke off. This causes the drawer to flop around, fall out of the guides entirely, and come all the way out without a stop.


This unit is just 30 months old, and I swear we are not guilty of appliance abuse. I would have thought for a "Profile" appliance, an upscale line, that they would have built it to be more durable than a "normal" cheap-o model, but apparently not.

And I was glad I bought a service contract because in that 30 months we've had the ice maker replaced, and the computer board that controls the fan replaced.

I have contacted GE appliances to see if they have any comments or can help me get some of these "cosmetic" items fixed or repaired.

Spotted on Bainbridge Island

What is this thing? I saw it today on the Chilly Hilly route and can't remember what it's called.

Click on the image for a larger view.

Where are the Holiday Shoppers?

Recently not spotted in the mall: customers. Check out this image taken in a large well known Department Store in Bellevue WA on a Friday night, about 7:30 PM, at what SHOULD be a pretty busy holiday shopping season.

I'm not gonna mention the "R" word but it's pretty deserted out there.

Click on the picture for a larger image.

Chromed twisted steel low-rider bike

Check out this sweet ride! The whole bike is twisted, chromed steel. Even the spokes! And it has dual controls, handlebars AND a steering wheel. (Not quite sure how roadworthy it would be even if you inflated the tires).

Yeah, and I think it even has a muffler in the back.

Spotted at a display in the Bellevue Square Nordstrom

Click on the images for a larger view, it's worth it!

Frontyard remodel progress report

We've been remodeling the front yard, and are filing a photo-progress report. We've cut out sod, tilled, planted lots of new (and very young plants, formed up a new walkway (just need some concrete) and added a dry streambed type rockery made up of rocks found IN our yard.

Spotted another Phishing scammer

They start out pretty well, but by the end of the email, punctuation and syntax trip them up badly.

I spotted 4 errors:
safety. :
process. Please (should be , please)
Sincerely (2x)
temporal hold

Iris tubers for free BAG COUNTER

Please note the current total and subtract the bags you are going to take OR took. We are starting with 30 bags of tubers.

Recumbent cycling vs upright

My buddy has been riding a Bacchetta Giro 20 for the past few years and kept bugging me to give it a try. I found one locally for a decent price and bought it. After riding it 700 miles, I had a financial need and I sold the Giro for what I bought it for, and went back to riding my Fuji Touring.

Now that I've been on the Fuji for a few weeks, these are my reflections on the difference between riding an upright bike vs. riding a recumbent.

Benefits of the 'bent:
relaxed seating position
Comfortable on longer rides.
A bit more aero in headwinds.
Upright head position gives a better view of the scenery.
Better use of gear combinations -- the longer chain line eliminates cross-chain issues.
And it was kinda cool getting "noticed" by bystanders.

But... the drawbacks for me outweighed those benfits.

No ventilation on the back.
Sun in your eyes.
Rain in your face.
Only one riding position.
No riding no-hands.
No opportunity to stand up for extra power.
Difficult to hold a line on steep hills.
Always have to get into the right gear before stopping at lights.
Tight turns require dropping inside foot off the pedal to avoid leg/handlebar and foot/wheel interference.
Longer bike is harder to transport.
No bunny hopping curbs.
On the DF, stopping is easy: swing leg over, coast in on the other foot, and then hop off.
And one of the biggest things was no contribution of upper body muscles, which are very useful on hills or accelleration.

Regarding comfort, sure DF bikes can cause discomfort in the perineal area, but one of the less discussed issues in the bent world is recum-butt, which is caused by sitting on the muscles you are using. It can be reduced by reclining the seat more and better weight distribution, but it's always a threat.

Some people think 'bents are lots slower on hills, and I didn't find that to be the case. I ride some very steep hills, 10-11% grade, and my speed on either bike isn't much different. The difference on steep hills is that you can stand or lean forward on a DF and put more weight on the front wheel. On the 'bent, you're pretty much screwed and unweighting the front wheel makes it much tricker to hold a straight line.

Anyway, I know there's lots of people who love their 'bents -- including my friend -- and I suppose if I had a long tour I might consider one, but for day to day riding, I'll take my DF.

Beat the ticket with Rule 2.2d

What's rule 2.2d you ask? I didn't know until today. I had to go to traffic court with my 19 year old to fight her ticket on "Following too closely." While we were waiting for our turn, a young man and his father had their turn, and pled "discharge" because rule 2.2d was violated. Sure enough, the judge and prosecuting atty looked at the paperwork and agreed, and "case dismissed." Wow! I want some of that action! So I followed them outside into the hall and asked what was "magic 2.2d ". The father handed me a copied page of Infraction Rules, and section 2.2d says that infractions have to be filed with the court within 5 business days, and theirs was filed in 7. Case dismissed. I asked how they knew the dates, and they said they had "done discovery" and gotten the filed documents. Well, I didn't have that, or the time to do it, but figured it was worth a shot.
When it was our turn, we sat down and the daughter asked "I was wondering if rule 2.2d applies in my case?" The prosecuting atty and judge look at their paperwork, and the atty gets quiet. A good sign, in my estimation. Then the judge asks the clerk to print out a copy of the paperwork for us. He then says "Look at the box below the fine, where it says "Date issued". We look. It is blank. And as it turns out, section 2.1b says that the ticket is SUPPOSED to contain this date.
Well the prosecuting atty makes a try going back to rule 2.1a which says "minor mistakes on the form don't invalidate it." Dang, I guess we're dead. But no, the judge says "I belive that section 1.9 refers to the printed form itself, not the information that is supposed to be filled in ON it." And at that, we are "case dismissed."
Thanks to the dad who tipped me off on rule 2.2d. Thanks to the office who failed to fill in the date. And thanks to the judge whose interpretation got us a dismissal.

NASA warming scientist: 'This is the last chance' - Yahoo! News

I can only hope that this means he's going to shut up now.

NASA warming scientist: 'This is the last chance' - Yahoo! News

How NOT to use numbers

This article shows how NOT to use numbers.

This Reuters Article regarding the number of dead in the Burma cyclone, said:

"Given the gravity of the situation including the lack of food and water, some partners have reported fears for security, and violent behavior in the most severely afflicted areas," the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said. It said "the number of deaths could range from 63,290 to 101,682"

This is like saying "82,486 plus or minus 19,196". With a margin of error that large, there's no way to support 5 significant digits of accuracy!

82486

82486

Let's Play Jeopardy! (College edition)

In a recent (May 8, 2008) Jeopardy game, between College students, the following answer was used. None of the contestants even attempted an answer. Will you know it?

The category is "B.A" - and as a hint, since they knew it, that means the answer is two words that start with the letters B and A.

The clue:

"Jesus said to Nicodemus, "Unless you become THIS you cannot enter the kingdom of heaven."


Got it?

No?

Believe it or not, not one contestant, (and these are "smart" college students) even attempted an answer to this one.

OK, just scroll on down for the answer.






farther






farther





farther




It's "Born Again".

As a commentary, I'm really shocked that none of them even had a clue. I thought everyone knew this! I hope you knew it.

Welcome to Kirkland. Prepare to get run over.

Too bad Kirkland hasn't yet installed bike lanes on 116th Ave NE. There are nice bike lanes on this road on the Bellevue section, but once you get across the city limit and enter Kirkland, the bike lane is over. You get a bit of shoulder here and there, separated by sections of road with just a fog line at the edge of the pavement.

Apparently this section of road has been identified to the Transportation Commission as needing bike lanes, but so far emails to the City as to dates for actual lanes have gone unanswered.

Verizon takes "Pigeon holed" to a new level

We all know that big companies tend to treat their employees like interchangable cogs, but Verizon takes the cake today for putting it right out there for all to see.

You see, I keep getting recruitment emails from Verizon. Mostly, it sounds like an OK place to work, I guess. That is, except for this little blurb at the bottom of each email:

Current Affiliate Employees - (excluding Verizon Connected Solutions (VCS) employees) If you are currently an employee of a Verizon Affiliate company, we can not consider you for a position at this time due to a corporate-wide policy that restricts movement of employees between Verizon companies. The purpose of this policy is to allow Verizon to manage its workforce and ensure the overall success of the business.

Former Employees - If you are a former Verizon or a former employee of a Verizon Affiliate/predecessor company, you must apply on-line. Please note that the company has limited opportunities to rehire former employees into positions. In the event there is a job opening for which you can be considered, you will be contacted for further action. You will not be contacted unless you are being considered for a position.

What was that again? It sounds like once you work at Verizon, upward or sideways mobility is OUT OF THE QUESTION! The job we hire you into is the job you are stuck with forever and ever. Even if you hate it. Even if you'd be great at the new job. We don't want to have to replace YOU, we just want to hire some people for this other job. Oh, yeah, and if you quit, or get laid off, you can apply on-line but you're at a distinct disadvantage getting hired back.

Harsh, very harsh. Verizon, putting these two rules on the table, up front and for all to see, is sending a clear message that "Whatever the company needs is always number one, and what you as an employee need will forever be number two."

People willing to put up with that kind of attitude remind me of women on Oprah or Dr. Phil who get married to guys who treated them poorly even before they got married.

First Meta-internet video

Hey, check it out. You've seen toilet-flushing cats, but you haven't seen anything quite like this:
META INTERNET VIDEO

Workstation ergonomics: give your eyes a break

Very important to give your eyes a break now and then when working for long periods on the computer.

Go to this page for an eye refresh, especially if you've been staring at a white spreadsheet or word processor screen for a while. The color will do you good.

And be sure to hit the REFRESH button a few times.

Sears in a time-warp moving backwards

So I bought some stuff at Sears a few weeks ago, that had a 100% rebate. You know me, always in for some free stuff. I actually have used them, though -- two allen wrench sets, one SAE and one metric. Nice. Free.

Anyway, I found that you could submit your rebate form online. Also nice. No hassles with tiny forms, copying receipts, 41 cents to mail, etc. etc. So I did that.

And yesterday, I got an email from Sears:

GEOFF HAZEL,

Thank you for participating in the Sears rebate program! We truly appreciate your business.

Your submission for the Free Companion Socket Set Free after MIR offer has met the requirements as stated on the order form. You should be receiving your request in the mail within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Your tracking id is PKTG-9010-XXXX

Nice. Money is coming.

And then today, one day later, I found another email from Sears:

GEOFF HAZEL,

Thank you for participating in the Sears rebate program! We truly appreciate your business.

Your submission for the Free Companion Socket Set Free after MIR offer has been received and is currently being validated based on the requirements as printed on the rebate form. Your tracking id is PKTG-9010-XXXX

Well it's good to know that they got it, but I'm still wondering what's coming next? It seems like they're in a time warp, moving backwards!

Now you see it now you don't. Your eyes and brain are lying to you!

OK, this little image is gonna trip you out! Read this below and then click on the image above to open in a new window and start the animation.

First, you see pink dots.

Now, stare at the + in the middle. First you start to see a rotating GREEN dot, and then the pink dots disappear altogether.

But there is no green dot, and the pink dots never disappear. It's all in your head.

Business opportunity: proofreading phishing email

I wonder if you could make any money proofreading Phishing emails? Don't you suppose these people know at least one person that speaks and writes correct english? Look at this spam I got today. (best to view if you right click and open it in another window or tab).


Sentence fragments. Mis-spelling (Miss-match). Non-standard usage "match your ... Answers rightly".

If it wasn't that these people are trying to steal your money and identity, I think you could make some money proofreading these and editing them to sound a bit more plausible.

Yahoo Answers milestone

I'm on a roll with Yahoo answers. This week I picked up another "Top Contributor" label in the General Science and Mathematics category, so now that's two "Top Contributor" rankings.
And in addition, I reached level 5 with 5000 points.

When I'm on my game I can pull down 750 points a week, and it's just 5000 more to level 6. Sounds like I'll be there in another couple of months if I keep my interest level up and don't find something more productive to do.

How many peanut M&M's is a handful?

I say 10, plus or minus 1.

This is how many you get for quarter these days in the vending machines that take a quarter and you turn the knob and open the little flap underneath. I've been keeping an eye on how many come out, and depending on size and random chance you get 9, 10 or 11 90% of the time.

And it turns out this is usually enough to quell the Peanut M&M craving you have.

And furthermore, it's a better deal than the bag in the vending machine down the hall! That bag probably costs you 75 cents, and it has about 26 M&M's in it.

And one more reason to buy 'em by the handful: face facts. If you buy the bag, you'll EAT the whole bag. You've just spent enough to quell three M&M cravings and only taken care of one. Now you're a little bit poorer and a little bit fatter.

The moral of this story:When it comes to Peanut M&M cravings, pass up the bag and go for the handful.

Reasons to hate Gateway

I have two reasons to regret buying a Gateway Convertable laptop. First, the external video port does not have any screw terminals. If you try (as I did) to put a cable on it and move it, the cable falls out. There is no way to hold a cable securely to the external video port. There's no good reason I can see why they left them off, there's room on the chassis for them. Too cheap?

Second reason: the laptop developed a mysterious blue-screen-reboot problem today. Googling the problem led me to consider and accept restoring from recovery disks. But when I tried to recover from the provided CD, it gives two options: R for recover, Q to boot from hard disk. If you choose R, it tries to access the recovery partition on the hard drive, and then blue-screens and reboots. The solution would be to fdisk or format the hard drive, but how do you do that if you can't boot? Well, what you do is press the hidden option F when given the choices of R or Q. And voila, you can format the hard drive and the recovery from CD commences. Now why, why, why didnt' they just add the F option to the recovery screen? Just to raise revenue when you call support?

Gateway... Gateway... how far you have fallen!!

Yahoo Answers Top Contributor

I am a Yahoo Answers Top Contributor in the Business and Finance section.

New bike

Trying out a new bike. Bacchetta recumbent. Now I need to figure out where to put the seat to get comfortable.

And no, I don't ride in jeans and tennis shoes. I'm working with the company to find the best "fit" for me.